Katsuaki Sugiura*, Katsumasa Kure, Takuma Kato, Fumiaki Kyutoku and Takeshi Haga


Using a model developed previously by the authors, a risk assessment was conducted to predict the change in the risk of ASF entering Japan as a result of the coronavirus pandemic in humans. The monthly probability of ASF entering Japan through illegal importation of pig products from China was calculated to be 4.2% (90% prediction interval: 0.0‐24.9%) in January, 0.45% (0‐2.5%) in February, 0.03% (0‐0.2%) in March and 0.0002% (0‐0.001%) in April, 0.00005% (0‐0.0003%) in May and 0.0009% (0‐0.005%) in June 2020 indicating a significant decline in the risk of ASF entry into Japan from China. The decline was attributed to a decrease in the number of air travelers from China and amount of restaurant food waste.

Paper Information

: Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
: 10.1111/tbed.13836